Big turnaround today. We’re in the wake of a cool front, and the air has turned more October-like for the short term.
If you thought today was cool, wait until the weekend. There was even a little speculation among our meteorologists of a few wet snowflakes in Southwestern New Hampshire on Saturday! Highs will only make it to the upper 40s to low 50s and we’ll be under a lot of clouds. Get the parka out!
Now to the elephant in the room. The speculation, the angst, and the ultimate track of the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic this season, Joaquin. Already peaking at a Category 4 (on a scale of 1-5), Joaquin is burrowing into the Southern Bahamas. It will take a lot to dig it out, but it seems that’s the job for low pressure in the Southeast – which incidentally will bring biblical rains to the tune of 10-18 inches in North/South Carolina – and a high south of Nova Scotia.
The issue, like the Architect in the Matrix said, is choice. Does it chose to follow a path along the Eastern Seaboard, or farther offshore of Bermuda, aiming for the open Atlantic? Our weather models show offshore, so we’re thinking the threat is low to the U.S., and the forecast is improving for the latter half of the weekend.
Although the National Hurricane Center still has the track near New England (see right), there have been incremental shifts to the east over the last day or so. Out decision to go against their forecast is not a slight on the accuracy of the Hurricane Center’s forecast. It’s just a different philosophy. We speculate that their forecast is bound by policy not make huge shifts in the storm track between forecasts. Quite simply, ours isn’t. And for that reason, we choose the other models (GFS and Euro in the graphic).
Nonetheless, a high pressure to the north (I know, lots of players in this game) is pumping cool air into New England and creating minor coastal flooding through the first part of the weekend. It also will push yesterday’s cool front closer tomorrow, spawning showers across much of Southern New England. Rain will be steadier and heavier over Cape Cod, where there might be up to 1-1.5" of rain through Friday night.
We’ll keep you apprised of any changes in Joaquin’s track. Stay with 7News.
Pete