Now that should keep us quiet for a while.
The deluge that hit New England today hammered some towns to the tune of 4+ of rain! While the first wave from this morning was sucked in by the parched ground, the final leg (with thunderstorms) put some of us over the edge, with flash flooding rearing its ugly head in Peabody and Lynn.
Some of that may be a result of the high tide. While we’re on the subject, winds will pile water up against the coast for the next 2-3 days. Combined with a high astronomical tide (thanks to the recent Supermoon), we will see splashover and minor coastal flooding on each high tide cycle into the weekend.
The front that squeezed the water out of the clouds today will stall offshore tonight. A few light showers will waft back over New England in the coming days. Two things about this: the days are not washed out, with major pauses and dry spells in between and these are showers not downpours. They will not renew flooding threats across New England.
That said, I’m purposely excluding the rain that may come from our next worry: Hurricane Joaquin.
Where is it heading? What are the concerns? Is New England in the crosshairs?
Firstly, there is no direct threat to New England. No model shows Joaquin coming directly for us. The track remains uncertain beyond 2-3 days, but the Hurricane Center has moved the "official" track into the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic by Sunday and Monday because of the general consensus to the weather models. This is pending a sharp turn to the north in the next day.
Sandy looms large in our memory. It too had to make a turn to the north and then northwest to slam into the Northeast. There was much speculation on whether it would make the improbable switch in direction, but in the end, it defied the odds.
So now we’re met with another hurricane in the same situation. Will history repeat itself? Never say never in weather. I have my doubts – especially since our most trusted model puts Joaquin out to pasture over the open Atlantic. (For the record, I also thought Sandy would miss the train and not take that sharp turn north.)
This whole scenario puts forecasters in a tough position. If we get hung up on what we don’t know, the public may become disenfranchised and ambivalent about the potential threat. If we get intense and worked up, we look like we’re feeding the hype. It’s a no-win situation.
Thankfully, we don’t have to play either card here in New England. We’re not getting a direct hit. Plain and simple. So we’ll see how it unfolds in the days ahead….as we sit in the cool, raw air.
Pete