Here's the warm air that should trigger the storms tom. AM. Temps are in Celsius.
First batch of rain was a wimpy one this morning, but the second one this evening means business. These bands are the 'big guns' in the storm. 90% of our accumulation will come from overnight and early morning rain. All told, many of us come away with an inch or two of water, but there might be some spots above that given the fact that thunder could be erupting in the early morning hours.
Tremendous amounts of warm air will be thrust into New England in the middle atmosphere. That will destabilize the air and pop t-storms in the 5-8am time frame. Needless to say, the rain will be equally tremendous, so watch for ponding and possible urban flooding.
With that warm air lingering, afternoon temps will be set to spike into the 60s to near 70 (!) by afternoon. This is sun-dependent, so with clouds clinging to the Cape/Islands, I've kept the temperatures conservative.
Overall, the temperatures are more like May than March - and that's a big deal. West winds will keep the sea breezes away, and the temperatures will stay even-keeled through next week. There is another shot of cool air early next week to keep us OUT of the 70s, but at least the sun's out.
As far as a big shift in the pattern - one that would have us basking in the 70s/80s or warmer - I still don't see it. I'm looking into mid May and the status quo seems to be holding. We'll see how the second half of May treats us.
Stay dry! Pete
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