With a track close to the southern New England coastline, milder air infiltrates eastern Mass, allowing for mostly rain.
Here's a look at past historical storms with similar tracks/set-ups and how the snow totals played out. Central New England tends to be the big "winner". Graphic is courtesy of St. Louis University.
Snow in eastern Mass in mainly early Thursday morning. Giving the apparent track of the storm, we'll leave the mainly snow areas from outer Route 2, points north.
Well, it wasn't the 50s of yesterday, but the stronger March sun was able to warm us up into the upper 30s and lower 40s this afternoon, just shy of seasonal levels.
As the cool Canadian air mass settles in overnight, lows fall back into the 20s as clouds increase. With just enough moisture and instability in place a couple hours either side of sunrise tomorrow, I do expect scattered snow showers to develop, and a few towns pick up a coating to and inch of snow. Obviously it's not a big storm, but a few slick spots are possible early in the morning. By late morning and early afternoon, temps warm to near 40 degrees with drier weather prevailing.
We'll do even better Tuesday as highs warm into the lower to middle 50s. However, once again, the warm-up is one and done as cooler weather and a mid-week mess get set to roll in.
Wednesday - Thursday:
A storm tracks from the Ohio Valley to the south coast of Southern New England Wednesday and into the Gulf of Maine by Thursday morning. It is a potent storm that picks up some Gulf of Mexico moisture and is capable of delivering about an inch of liquid equivalent in terms of precipitation. The question is... does it fall as rain or snow?
Obviously the exact track plays a critical role in rain/snow lines, but here's an early look at how I think it'll play out:
Given the apparent track of the low (near the south coast of New England), milder air does move in through eastern Mass on Wednesday, providing rain along the coast, through the 128 belt, and perhaps even close to 495 from late morning Wednesday, into Wednesday evening. Outside 495, especially near Route 2 and through the higher terrain of Worcester County, enough cold air still may be in place for mixed precip or a mainly snow event. Across Central New England... it's all snow.
Wednesday night, the low tracks to our east, and as winds turn back to the northeast and then north, colder air changes rain over to snow from NW to SE. Even Boston may end up with a bit of snow early Thursday morning before the storm tapers off. Accumulations would be minor in eastern Mass, but several inches are plausible along the 495 belt, with at least a half a foot or more across and north of outer Route 2. Central New England should do well with this for the ski and snowmobile tracks as they pick up perhaps a foot of snow.
As light snow tapers off Thursday morning, a biting wind kicks in, holding temps down into the 20s and dropping them into the single digits Thursday night.
However, we'll bounce back to near 50 by next Saturday.
While no prolonged stretches of Spring weather are showing up in the forecast, we are slowly starting to break out of winter mode as once and a while we start catching a 50 degree day.
Hope you had a great weekend, and as always, we'll keep you updated on air and online with this weeks storm. You can follow us on twitter too... @clamberton7, @jreineron7, @pbouchardon7.
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