We did alright for ourselves to begin the month of February as highs for most reached the lower to middle 40s. We’ll step it up another notch on Sunday too as highs flirt with the 50 degree mark on Groundhog Day. Regardless of what our furry friend says tomorrow, winter is not over and Mother Nature will make that well know in the pattern ahead.
Ironically, it was Phil’s early prediction of Spring last year that sent us on a snow tear. After February 2nd last year, Boston saw an additional 54.6″ of snow by the end of March and Worcester picked up an astounding 75.3″ of snow in the 7 weeks following the Groundhog not seeing see shadow. Anyway, it’s a fun event to look forward tomorrow and so will the 50 degree weather.
The warmer weather won’t last long as a late-day cold front Sunday will drop the numbers back into the 30s for Monday. As a wave of low pressure rides along that front, that stalls just south of us, it’ll spread snow across the south coast of New England Monday morning. Enough moisture sneaks far enough to spit out some flakes as far north as the Mass Pike, but at this point, I don’t see much more than a dusting from Boston to Worcester if that. Across the South Shore, a coating to an inch is a better bet with a good 1-3″ across Buzzards Bay and the Cape and Islands with the higher numbers favoring the farther south you go. Behind this system, we’re quiet for Tuesday and seasonably cold.
The main event this work-week is Wednesday. As an area of low pressure moves from Texas to the Ohio Valley, it grabs Gulf of Mexico Moisture and heads northeast. As that moisture encounters that colder air in place, the northern side of the storm is snow. Initially, the main area of low pressure looks to move from the Ohio Valley to PA and then NY. With that much of an inland track, we’d see snow go to an icy mix, if not over to rain with an east to southeast wind. However, there also appears that a secondary low starts to take over south of us, and if that becomes the main storm fast enough, the colder air has more staying power and the mix/rain line stays farther south thanks to a more northeast wind. Right now a plowable snow looks likely for most locations, with the exception of far southeast Mass. Where it stays all snow, there’s enough moisture for at least 6″+ with the bulk of it falling Wednesday morning through early afternoon. It’s too early to draw the snow maps, but now the most likely locations for all snow is along and north of the Pike. Of course, a change in the track changes that, and that’s what we’ll have to fine tune here over the next few days to adjust either north or south.
4-5 days out, there are usually plenty of twist and turns to the forecast, but the pattern is an active one. Next storm up after this one may be slated sometime next weekend (perhaps late Saturday or Sunday). We’ll cross that bridge when we get to it.
Enjoy your Sunday.